The sixth European Union – African Union Summit clearly signaled that Europe wants to deepen its partnership with Africa. Inspired by the European Neighbourhood Policy, more intensive economic relations create more prosperity for both sides and stop unwelcome spillovers such as forced migration. Yet, while the summit led to some promising initiatives, the challenges for the partnership to bear fruits remain huge.
Africa Matters to Europe
Geographical proximity, colonial history, and the wide variety of human relations make Africa an important partner for Europe. The EU wants to benefit economically from the neighboring continent’s riches and its great potential to produce green energy. In addition, Europe has a genuine interest in Africa’s political stability as it seeks to ward off spillover effects resulting from forced migration, armed conflicts, terrorism, and the exacerbated consequences of climate change.
African societies also have an interest in cooperating more closely with the European Union as they expect more jobs and the prosperity of an upgraded partnership based on fair opportunities and eye-level cooperation. However, while all of this might provide for a win-win situation on paper, there are challenges.
The Demographic Challenge: Strong Population Growth
16% of the world population (1.3 billion people) currently live in Africa – a figure expected to double by 2050. On the one hand, this demographic trend promises a young population that wants to shape its own future. On the other hand, it also means there can be a significant risk for migration and protest if governments do not create adequate living and working conditions.
The Drought Challenge: Heat Waves Destroying Farmland
These governmental tasks are becoming even more difficult under changing climate conditions. Kenya is currently affected by a drought that has lasted for months. Three million small farmers are losing their last means of livelihood. Many are fleeing within the country. A photograph of dead giraffes symbolizes the tragedy.
Increasing heat waves threaten the food security of African societies. A situation that the Corona pandemic has exacerbated – causing food and energy prices to explode, destroying jobs in the informal sector, and increased existing social inequalities.
The Corona Challenge: Low Vaccination Rates
Africa has received the smallest share of vaccines against the pandemic worldwide. And it is not only South Africa that is wary of the EU’s partnership advances after the Europeans quickly imposed travel restrictions during the peak tourism season following the discovery of the Omicron Covid variant. To rebuild trust, the Europeans are now willing to transfer technology. Funded by the EU Commission as well as Germany, France, and Belgium individually, the mRNA vaccine is to be produced in six African countries from Egypt to South Africa to Tunisia. The matter of patent rights has yet to be clarified, though.
The Trade Challenge: More Fairness Needed
Africans also demand more fairness in trade. The EU is Africa’s most important trading partner, accounting for 25% of its overall trade volume, ahead of China with 17% and the US with 5%. At the same time, in 2020, Africa accounted for just 5.9% of EU imports and 6.5% of EU exports. Because of this positive trade balance, Europe benefits by a fifth more from trade with Africa than the other way around – equivalent to €24.3 bn. Europeans primarily export industrial goods and purchase raw materials from Africa. There is, however, potential for increasing the trade volume in every sector, from automobiles to hydrogen.
A Way Forward: More Investment
Against this difficult backdrop, the heads of state of the 27 EU member states and 51 countries of the African Union agreed upon the main pillar for the future EU-AU relations at their latest summit on February 18th: a new and bold investment strategy for a good cause. The need for investment in Africa is huge, especially in digitalization, infrastructure, agriculture, and climate protection. The African Development Bank estimates the need at €150 bn per year and marks an annual gap of €100 bn.
With its “Global Gateway” investment initiative, which aims to mobilize €300 bn between 2021 and 2027, the EU wants to finance infrastructure development around the world. EU Commission President von der Leyen announced that €150 bn of the initiative’s total of €300 bn would go to Africa, in the form of annual payments of €20 bn. This €20 bn consists of €6 bn from EU funds; the rest comes from public money from EU member states and private investors.
This would still mean a substantial annual funding requirement of around €70 bn. Although this is a huge amount of money, it is not enough to cover Africa’s total demand for annual investment. Therefore, for the investment to bear fruits, the distribution of funds must follow strategic priorities.
In principle, the AU-EU Summit set the right targets with a partnership for green and digital transformation, employment through sustainable economies, managed mobility, and good governance that must all be combined. However, even if the investment is perfectly targeted, it depends on a sufficient degree of good governance and rules-based structures to lead to the desired effects.
As the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) shows, legitimate, rule-of-law and efficient administrative action with less corruption is increasingly becoming a basic prerequisite to make production more sustainable, more digital, and greener. Unfortunately, the trend in Africa runs counter to democratic governance. Whereas in 2019, half of all African states were still democratically governed, the BTI 2022 now classifies more than two-thirds of the 50 countries surveyed as autocracies.
Competing with China, Russia, and Turkey
While these are difficult conditions under which to launch a full-fledged investment partnership based on enhanced cooperation, it is not something that Europe’s competitors in the region bother themselves with when pursuing their own strategic goals. China, Russia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi-Arabia, all of which can be considered autocratic themselves, seek to gain access to raw materials, valuable farmland, and lucrative infrastructure projects via spending programs and strengthening ties with corrupt potentates.
With Global Gateway, the EU can begin to assert its interests vis-à-vis China. However, Beijing’s Silk Road Initiative remains a major challenge. In the last eight years, China has already invested around €180 bn in 46 African nations. In Europe’s favor, Africa’s rulers and governments do not want to be dependent on China and Russia but prefer to rely on several partners rather than just one. The EU also benefits from the fact that many African decision-makers have a second passport – a European one, own real estate in Europe, and like to send their children to study there. In addition, important business and remittance relationships have grown through the African diaspora in Europe.
Conflicts Require European Peace Building Capacities
Another difficult challenge for the EU is the conflicts that fuel suffering, terrorism, flight, and migration, in particular in the regions on Europe’s doorstep, such as Libya and the Sahel region in the Horn of Africa. Here, EU member states participate in UN peacekeeping operations – the EU maintains missions to train armed forces and build the capacity of African Blue Helmets. How little effect these stabilization initiatives have had is shown by the coup in Mali, the intended French troop withdrawal, and the advancing Russian influence through the use of their “private” Wagner militias. Neither does Europe call the tune in Libya on the Mediterranean. Turkey’s military and financial engagement in the west of Libya and that of Russia and the Emirates in the east are cementing the division of the country against European interests.
Civil Society as a Driver of Modernization
It is in Europe’s interest to develop an active civil society, which the EU has been supporting for years in North Africa within the framework of its southern neighbourhood policy. In many other African countries, NGOs are also becoming increasingly important for social development – and their networking with European NGOs is valuable capital for promoting mutual cultural understanding and jointly setting up green, digital and sustainable projects. Thus, a Euro-African NGO forum under the motto ”Together Tomorrow Today” accompanied the 6th AU-EU Summit in Brussels – a promising signal.
All in all, by allocating half of its Global Gateway means to Africa, the EU has made it clear that the continent is of great importance to the EU. However, as the challenges remain considerable, money alone will not be enough. To successfully lead to desired effects, the money spent must be underpinned by balanced and decisive political action as well as a deep breath.
BIO NOTE
Vasileios Chronas is an economist, currently working as an intern at the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Europe team.
Christian Hanelt works as Senior Expert in the project “Strategies for the EU Neighbourhood“. His areas of expertise include the Israeli-Arab conflict, the EU’s relations with the Gulf States (GCC), political, social, and economic developments in the Arab world, and the causes of flight and migration.
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