The Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index: Mapping Europe’s Interconnections in an Age of Geopolitics
The EU’s neighbouring regions are undergoing deep transformation, as the liberal international order becomes increasingly contested and economic and geopolitical considerations become more intertwined. Our new Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index (GEOII), produced by Bertelsmann Stiftung, wiiw and ECIPE, maps these transformations, informing urgent discussions on the EU’s neighbourhood policies.
While the EU remains the most interconnected actor in its neighbourhood, its role has become contested. In particular, China has been catching up in key areas. To strengthen its geoeconomic position, the EU should leverage its single market, regulatory and financial weight and ensure its neighbours see tangible benefits in aligning with Europe rather than rival powers.
A new perspective on Europe’s neighbourhood
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, many in Europe believed that history had reached a turning point, that law, markets and soft power would govern international relations, and economic interdependence would secure peace. For a time, this vision seemed within reach. The EU invested heavily in trade, integration and regulatory alignment, confident that prosperity and stability would reinforce one another.
The world that has since emerged looks very different. Economic ties remain crucial, but they are increasingly used as instruments of competition and coercion. Access to markets, energy and technology is leveraged to secure political concessions and strategic alignment. In this new era of geopolitics, the line between economics and power has blurred.
Europe is at the heart of this transformation. Its neighbourhood – stretching from the Western Balkans and Eastern Partnership countries to Türkiye and the Southern Mediterranean – have become contested spaces. Here, the EU, China, Russia and, to a lesser extent, the US seek to reshape outcomes. But until now, there has been no systematic way to measure and compare how these major powers are embedded across the region.
The Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index (GEOII) was designed to fill that gap. It provides the first comprehensive, data-driven assessment of Europe’s ties with its neighbourhood and sets them in direct comparison with the other major powers. Covering the years 2010–2023 and based on 43 indicators grouped into sub-indices trade, finance and policy, the GEOII offers an annual snapshot of how interconnections evolve over time – and what this means for Europe’s role in the world.
The need for understanding geoeconomic interconnectivity
Europe’s position in its neighbourhood cannot be taken for granted. While the EU has long been the most important economic and political partner across its immediate surroundings, this role has been under increasing pressure.
China has expanded its presence through infrastructure projects, investment and growing trade in goods and services. Russia, despite its declining overall economic weight, continues to exert leverage through energy supplies and agri-food exports, as well as coercive tactics. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 brutally demonstrated how military force can be combined with geoeconomic pressure. The US, meanwhile, has historically played a more limited economic role in these regions, with its presence receding further in recent years.
Many countries in Eastern Europe, the Balkans and the Southern Mediterranean now face competing offers, incentives and pressures from multiple external actors.
Against this backdrop, the GEOII was conceived as a data-driven tool for political analysis and strategic reflection. By capturing the breadth and depth of Europe’s economic and political ties and comparing them with those of its competitors, the index provides a clear evidence base to understand where the EU is strong, where it is losing ground and where it needs to recalibrate.
Key findings from 2010 to 2023
The first edition of the GEOII, covering 2010–2023, offers important insights:
1. The EU remains the most interconnected actor
Across all neighbourhood regions, the EU continues to be the leading partner. Its position is underpinned by trade volumes, investment flows, financial integration and an extensive network of agreements. Enlargement processes, association treaties and regulatory alignment add further depth.
2. Since 2021, the EU has lost ground in some areas
The data show a clear inflection point. While the EU’s presence remains dominant overall, its relative strength has diminished in certain fields, particularly in high technology trade and investment.
3. China is catching up
China has systematically expanded its footprint, especially through trade and investment. In some categories, it has already overtaken the EU as the primary partner. Its approach combines large scale infrastructure financing, technology transfer and closer diplomatic engagement.
4. Russia continues to exert leverage
Despite the constraints of sanctions and economic decline, Russia remains an influential player through its control of energy supplies and agri-food exports. These continue to be used as tools of political pressure and strategic leverage, particularly in Eastern Europe.
5. The US plays only a limited role
In economic terms, the US has never been deeply embedded in Europe’s immediate neighbourhood. Since 2017, its interconnectivity has declined further, leaving the field largely to the EU, China and Russia.
Taken together, these findings paint a picture of Europe as the still-dominant but increasingly challenged actor. Its neighbourhoods are no longer uncontested spaces. Rival powers are present, active and, in some sectors, advancing rapidly.
What it means for Europe
The implications of the GEOII speak directly to the EU’s ability to act as a global player.
The EU has long defined itself as a community of integration, rules and cooperation. In its neighbourhood, this has translated into enlargement, trade agreements, investment and regulatory convergence. But in the geoeconomic age, this logic of engagement is challenged. Connectivity is no longer simply about mutual benefit. It is about geopolitical positioning too.
The EU’s strengths remain considerable. Its single market, regulatory power and financial weight continue to make it the partner of choice for many neighbours. Yet vulnerabilities are equally clear. In high technology trade, investment and certain strategic sectors, the EU is being overtaken. Moreover, when faced with Russia’s use of violence, hybrid influence and coercion against countries seeking closer ties with the EU and the West, Europe has struggled to mount an effective counter.
The lesson is stark: Connectivity needs to be used strategically. The EU will need to mobilise its economic weight more decisively in defence of its interests and values. That means not only deepening existing partnerships, but ensuring its neighbours see tangible benefits in aligning with Europe rather than rival powers.
Explore the GEOII
The full results of the index, interactive graphics and regional breakdowns are available on our new homepage geoii.eu, which is integrated into this website via the drop-down menu at the top right.
How the index works
The GEOII uses a robust and transparent methodology, in line with best practice standards formulated by the OECD and the EU’s Joint Research Centre. The index contains 43 indicators, which are measured annually between 2010 and 2023 and organised into three sub-indices:
Trade (including imports, exports, trade in high technology goods, energy flows)
Finance (foreign direct investment, banking presence, development finance)
Policy (treaties, association agreements, regulatory alignment, arms transfers, political engagement)
Each region – Western Balkans, Eastern neighbours, Türkiye and the Southern Mediterranean – is assessed separately, and the results are aggregated to give an overall picture of the EU’s neighbourhoods.
This design ensures that the GEOII does not reduce complex relationships to a single figure. Instead, it captures the multiple dimensions of connectivity that shape how leverage, influence and partnership are exercised in practice. Over time, it will allow observers to trace patterns, identify turning points and evaluate the impact of specific events, such as the war in Ukraine, new trade agreements or shifts in global investment flows.
About the author
Etienne Höra is Project Manager at the Europe’s Future program at Bertelsmann Stiftung.
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