{"id":9410,"title":"The Crossroads Conversations:","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/de\/globalization\/the-crossroads-conversations\/","date":"22. August 2016","date_unix":1471902126,"date_modified_unix":1471902126,"date_iso":"2016-08-22T21:42:06+00:00","content":"<figure id=\"attachment_9486\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9486\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9486\" src=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/08\/25429035232_84072a7b27_o.jpg\" alt=\"Pedro Szekely \/ Flickr.com\" width=\"3650\" height=\"2433\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-9486\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Pedro Szekely \/ Flickr.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cThe irony,\u201d\u00a0 Vali Nasr told me, \u201cis that this is increasingly rehabilitating the military: the more Turkey leans on a military solution to the Kurdish problem, the more it has a national security environment.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>On the morning of July 15, I met with Dr. Nasr, a former Senior Advisor at the US Department of State and current Dean of Johns Hopkins SAIS, to talk about Turkey at the crossroads. The conversation drifted from Ankara towards the country\u2019s southeast, where Turkey\u2019s military prosecutes a fierce, if unfocused, campaign against Kurdish separatists.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>A few hours later, I began receiving text messages from +90 numbers\u2014Turkey\u2019s international prefix. \u201cThere is a military coup here.\u201d \u201cJet planes are flying over parliament, no one knows what is happening.\u201d \u201cTanks on the street in Ankara.\u201d \u201cWe think it\u2019s a coup; not sure how much longer internet will work.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Nobody, not even Dr. Nasr, expected this.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>This is one of the major challenges of projects such as <em>The Crossroads<\/em>, which takes a long-term perspective on critical issues in emerging markets: The situation has a tendency to rapidly change on the ground. \u00a0This occurred during production for <a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/topics\/competitiveness\/the-crossroads\/the-crossroads-brazil\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><em>The Crossroads Brazil<\/em><\/a>, when it became clear half-way through that President Dilma Rousseff would likely be impeached. During work on <a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/topics\/competitiveness\/the-crossroads\/the-crossroads-cuba\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><em>The Crossroads Cuba<\/em><\/a><em>, <\/em>relations between the US and our subject island seemed to update on a daily basis. Just prior to my interview with President Juan Manuel Santos for the <a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/topics\/competitiveness\/the-crossroads\/the-crossroads-colombia\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><em>Crossroads Colombia<\/em><\/a>, an international crisis broke out between his country and neighboring Venezuela.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In Turkey, the failed coup attempt of July 15 appeared to flip the country on its head, and our months of work on <em>The Crossroads Turkey <\/em>along with it.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>However, as the dust settled\u2014and continues to settle\u2014we began reviewing our archived \u00a0Turkey conversations<em>\u2014<\/em>many of which were held just days prior to the coup\u2014and found that rather than being outdated, these interviews give valuable insight into the rise of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, his Justice and Development Party (AKP), and some of the critical economic dynamics that <a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/topics\/competitiveness\/the-crossroads\/inside-turkeys-economy\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" >have shaped Turkey over the last 15 years.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Though these conversations occurred prior to the coup attempt, they can help us understand where the country is now headed given the attempt\u2019s failure.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"postContentEmbed\">\n<div class=\"embedContainer embedContainer--video\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Inside Turkey&#039;s Economy \u2013 Interview with Daron Acemoglu\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube-nocookie.com\/embed\/DnG7BVD-7n0?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>As we continue to work on the <em>The Crossroads Turkey, <\/em>we wanted to share two such interviews in advance that we found particularly insightful. First we publish our conversation with Daron Acemoglu, one of the top economists in the world, and a Turkish national.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>This interview gives an inside perspective on the rise of the <a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/topics\/competitiveness\/the-crossroads\/inside-turkeys-economy\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" >Erdogan Economy<\/a>, as well as a critical shift from \u00a0high-quality, sustainable growth predicated on investment, multifactor and productivity enhancements, to consumption-based growth that favors insiders and could stoke macroeconomic instability.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The economic trends discussed by Dr. Acemoglu could ultimately have a greater impact on Turkey\u2019s stability then the failed putsch attempt of July 15.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"postContentEmbed\">\n<div class=\"embedContainer embedContainer--video\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Vali Nasr on Rise of Turkish President Erdogan and AKP\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube-nocookie.com\/embed\/KX_-R5t-HKg?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The second interview we share in this post is with Dr. Nasr himself, recorded the very morning of the coup. Typically we focus on economic issues, but, as we all know, economic policy does not occur in a vacuum, and it is profoundly influenced by political headwinds. In this conversation, Dr. Nasr goes in-depth on how these trends shaped the rise of President Erdogan, and helps us understand what political direction he might take next.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>We hope you enjoy these conversations, and keep an eye out for <em>The Crossroads Turkey<\/em>!<\/p>\n","excerpt":"<p>These two new pieces from the Crossroads Archives present a closer look into the Turkish state and economy as seen by Daron Acemoglu and Vali Nasr.<\/p>\n","thumbnail":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/08\/25429035232_84072a7b27_o-scaled.jpg","thumbnailsquare":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/08\/25429035232_84072a7b27_o-scaled.jpg","authors":[{"id":309,"name":"Samuel George","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/de\/blogger\/samuel-george\/"}],"categories":[{"id":152,"name":"Globalization","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/category\/globalization\/"}],"tags":[]}