{"id":6649,"title":"Europe: Divided We Fall","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/de\/globalization\/europe-divided-we-fall\/","date":"6. Juli 2016","date_unix":1467792771,"date_modified_unix":1467792771,"date_iso":"2016-07-06T08:12:51+00:00","content":"
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Shutterstock \/ wk1003mike<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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The United Kingdom voters decided to leave the European Union (EU). Citizens of other\u00a0countries, too, may\u00a0think they might be better off outside the EU. But considering\u00a0the economic and demographic developments within the next decades, this is a fundamental misjudgement.<\/em><\/p>\n

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1. Economic integration fosters economic growth<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Numerous studies show that a deeper economic integration has a positive impact on economic growth, employment and material wealth. We demonstrated this for the proceeding globalisation<\/a>\u00a0and the European single market<\/a>. Consequently, an economic disintegration has a negative effect for economic development \u2013 especially for those countries which pull out<\/a>. Hence weakening European integration produces no economic winners. Apart from this, strengthening European integration is not just an economic question. A united and strong Union is necessary if Europe wants to keep room to\u00a0manoeuvre on the political world stage.<\/p>\n

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2. Global population development = Shrinking Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n

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At the moment, four large European countries \u2013 Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy \u2013 belong to the eight largest economies in the world. In the future, however, Europe\u2019s economies are likely to be overtaken by developing countries. One reason is global demographic development. By\u00a02050, population numbers will increase in all regions of the world \u2013 except in Europe (see figure 1). This implies not only a larger workforce in developing countries but also a higher dependency ratio for European countries. A higher dependency ratio means an increase in the relation between people who are not working (because they are too young to work or too old) and the population of working age.<\/p>\n

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\"Tabelle\"<\/a><\/p>\n

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3. Shifting economic powers mean no EU country will be in the list of top economic powers in the world by 2050<\/strong><\/p>\n

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In combination with high increases in productivity in developing countries, this growth in\u00a0global population will result in a shift in global economic power relationships. Of course long-term forecasts are always fraught with uncertainty. Nevertheless, PwC dared to make a prediction out to\u00a02050. According to this forecast, at the latest before the end of the year 2050, the group of the eight largest economies worldwide \u2013 measured by the gross domestic product (GDP) \u2013 will consist of the United States, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, China, India, Indonesia and Japan (see figure 2). Hence no single European country belongs to the group of the economically most powerful economies.<\/p>\n

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\"Globali2016_Blog_2\"<\/a><\/p>\n

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4. Safeguarding European interests in a changing world<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Economic power is often a prerequisite for political power. Hence the loss of economic power of European countries leads to a reduction of political power and thus influence on the approach to global challenges. At the moment, there are at least four areas of global challenges which all have a significant impact on the wellbeing of the people:<\/p>\n

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