{"id":6415,"title":"Who Will Shape the World Trade Order of the 21st Century \u2014 East or West?","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/de\/globalization\/who-will-shape-the-world-trade-order-of-the-21st-century-east-or-west-2\/","date":"17. Mai 2016","date_unix":1463492563,"date_modified_unix":1644496142,"date_iso":"2016-05-17T13:42:43+00:00","content":"<figure id=\"attachment_6410\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-6410\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/iStock_000083958119_XXXL_MPL.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6410\" src=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/iStock_000083958119_XXXL_MPL.jpg\" alt=\"narvikk \/ iStockphoto.com\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/iStock_000083958119_XXXL_MPL.jpg 2000w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/iStock_000083958119_XXXL_MPL-300x207.jpg 300w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/iStock_000083958119_XXXL_MPL-1024x707.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/iStock_000083958119_XXXL_MPL-768x530.jpg 768w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/iStock_000083958119_XXXL_MPL-1536x1060.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/iStock_000083958119_XXXL_MPL-600x414.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-6410\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">narvikk \/ iStockphoto.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/attendee.gotowebinar.com\/register\/2207694378942887425\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CLICK HERE TO REGISTER FOR OUR GED WEBINAR EXPLAINING ALL THE STUDY&#8217;S RESULTS!<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/fileadmin\/files\/BSt\/Publikationen\/GrauePublikationen\/NW_Asia_s_Rise_in_the_New_World_Trade_Order.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CLICK HERE TO READ THE FULL STUDY!<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/globaleurope\/topics\/international-trade\/effects_of_regional_trade_agreements\/pacific_alliance\/a-chain-reaction-ttip-tpp-and-latin-america\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CLICK HERE TO READ ALL ABOUT PART ONE OF OUR SERIES!<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Our new GED Study Series \u201cHow do Mega-Regional Trade Agreements Affect Emerging Markets\u201d sheds light on the effects such pervasive changes in the global trading game will have on various regions around the world.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Part two of this three-part series analyzes the effects of TPP, FTAAP and RCEP on 20 Asian economies and argues that Asia could be a major player in forging the rules for international trade in the 21st century.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Asia has the potential to become the most important region in world trade in the 21<sup>st<\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The region\u2019s share of world exports and imports currently amounts to 32 percent and 31.5 percent, respectively (Europe: 36.8 percent and 36.4 percent).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sixty percent of the world\u2019s population lives in Asia, forming a consumer market with huge potential.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Three of the 10 largest economies measured by gross domestic product (GDP) are Asian: China, Japan and India. In 2014, they accounted for about 22 percent of world GDP.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The Asian Development Bank estimates that Asia\u2019s share of GDP will increase to 52 percent by 2025. So it seems to be just a matter of time until Asia becomes the center of the global economy, and leaves Europe behind in international trade.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/1.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6416\" src=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/1.jpg\" alt=\"1\" width=\"1427\" height=\"900\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/1.jpg 1427w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/1-300x189.jpg 300w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/1-1024x646.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/1-768x484.jpg 768w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/1-600x378.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1427px) 100vw, 1427px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) could be regarded as an attempt by the West to mitigate this development and to become a pioneer in the establishment of deep standards for a new world trade order. Meanwhile, Asian countries have not been idle either and a number of them are involved in the negotiation of three other mega-regional trade deals: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Whereas the TPP and FTAAP strive for closer integration of the Asia-Pacific region, the RCEPopts for closer integration between Asia and Oceania with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as the center. Since the three mega-regionals differ in the composition of their members, their economic effects consequently differ with respect to both member states and third countries within Asia. In addition, scenarios are possible where several agreements exist at the same time.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken1.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6417\" src=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken1.jpg\" alt=\"Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken1\" width=\"2067\" height=\"1465\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken1.jpg 2067w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken1-300x213.jpg 300w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken1-1024x726.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken1-768x544.jpg 768w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken1-600x425.jpg 600w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken1-1536x1089.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken1-2048x1452.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2067px) 100vw, 2067px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The TPP includes the least number of Asian countries. Also, China, the world\u2019s most important trading nation, is excluded. According to our analysis, this results in more negative effects on real income in Asia than the other two trade pacts, even though these effects stay within narrow limits. The TPP could also lead to an economic split among ASEAN states, since only four out of 10 members are part of the TPP, and might hamper the ASEAN integration process in the long run. It therefore makes sense for the ASEAN states to push their own integration initiative in the form of the RCEP. Compared to the TPP, the RCEP yields more positive economic effects for Asian countries, including non-members, and thus is more advantageous for the economic integration process within Asia. The FTAAP as the most inclusive initiative could have significant positive effects and provide major momentum for trade in the region and beyond for non-participating Asian countries as well, especially through the elimination of non-tariff barriers to trade. Considered over the medium to long term, the FTAAP is consequently a more sustainable path to economic integration for Asia due to its broader inclusiveness.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>However, since it is unlikely that the FTAAP will be concluded in the near future, the TPP and the RCEP could be concluded parallel to one another and could possibly pave the way for the FTAAP, which would then integrate India as well. Our analysis of the parallel scenarios with the TPP and RCEP indeed shows that Asia would profit most if both agreements were concluded. Also, both agreements could be an effective \u201cantidote\u201d to the TTIP, in which the region is only a passive observer, and help Asian countries mitigate the negative effects of the transatlantic initiative to some degree.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken2.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6418\" src=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken2.jpg\" alt=\"Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken2\" width=\"2067\" height=\"1205\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken2.jpg 2067w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken2-300x175.jpg 300w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken2-1024x597.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken2-768x448.jpg 768w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken2-600x350.jpg 600w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken2-1536x895.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/Blogpost_Asia_Grafiken2-2048x1194.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2067px) 100vw, 2067px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The participation or non-participation in 21<sup>st<\/sup> century trade deals, which aim to create new rules especially in regard to non-tariff barriers to trade, will influence the role of Asian countries in the setting of international standards. Who will actively shape the world trade order of the 21<sup>st<\/sup> century\u2014East or West? Or to put it more bluntly, China or the United States? This question is key to the political agenda underlying the mega-regionals analyzed here beyond economic effects.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Interested in more? Click <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/globaleurope\/topics\/international-trade\/effects_of_regional_trade_agreements\/pacific_alliance\/a-chain-reaction-ttip-tpp-and-latin-america\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here<\/a> to read more about part one of our Series! Click<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/globaleurope\/topics\/competitiveness\/challenges_in_international_competitiveness\/buying-europe\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> here<\/a> to read about Chinese investment in Europe!<\/em><\/p>\n","excerpt":"<p>Part two of our three-part series analyzes the effects of TPP, FTAAP and RCEP on 20 Asian economies and argues that Asia could be a major player in forging the rules for international trade in the 21st century.<\/p>\n","thumbnail":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/iStock_000083958119_XXXL_MPL.jpg","thumbnailsquare":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/05\/iStock_000083958119_XXXL_MPL.jpg","authors":[{"id":2725,"name":"Cora Jungbluth","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/blogger\/dr-cora-jungbluth\/"}],"categories":[{"id":152,"name":"Globalization","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/category\/globalization\/"}],"tags":[{"id":151,"name":"Publications","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/tag\/publications\/"}]}