{"id":5324,"title":"Ireland: The Biggest Loser from a Brexit?","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/de\/globalization\/ireland-the-biggest-loser-from-a-brexit\/","date":"15. Dezember 2015","date_unix":1450177214,"date_modified_unix":1644496149,"date_iso":"2015-12-15T11:00:14+00:00","content":"<figure id=\"attachment_5387\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5387\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2015\/12\/shutterstock_130205411_Premier.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-5387\" src=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2015\/12\/shutterstock_130205411_Premier.jpg\" alt=\"Christophe BOISSON \/ shutterstock\" width=\"595\" height=\"595\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2015\/12\/shutterstock_130205411_Premier.jpg 595w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2015\/12\/shutterstock_130205411_Premier-400x400.jpg 400w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2015\/12\/shutterstock_130205411_Premier-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2015\/12\/shutterstock_130205411_Premier-300x300.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 595px) 100vw, 595px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-5387\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Christophe BOISSON \/ shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The simple fact that the Irish and the British economies are very closely integrated, with Ireland depending very strongly on exports to and imports from Britain means Ireland may lose almost as the UK from a Brexit.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">In 2014 Ireland exported \u20ac14.61bn worth of goods to the United Kingdom. This figure represented 13.1% of exports from Ireland and 3.2% of imports to the United Kingdom.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">In 2014 the United Kingdom exported \u20ac17.24bn \u00a0worth of goods to\u00a0Ireland. This amounted to 5.5% of exports from\u00a0the United Kingdom and 35.6% of imports to Ireland.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/exporting-to-ireland\/exporting-to-ireland#ireland-export-overview\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">UK Trade &amp; Investment <\/a>Office, the main exports from the UK to Ireland (by value) are:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Fuel and lubricants<\/li>\n<li>Manufactured articles<\/li>\n<li>Machinery<\/li>\n<li>Transport<\/li>\n<li>Food and live animals<\/li>\n<li>Chemicals<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In fact, Ireland is the UK\u2019s largest export market in food and drink, and second largest market in clothing, fashion and footwear.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The following graph (generated through our trade visualization tool <a href=\"http:\/\/viz.blogs.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/globaleurope\/?lang=en\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">GED VIZ<\/a>) makes\u00a0it clear how the\u00a0Irish\u00a0economy is dependent on\u00a0trade with the United Kingdom.<\/p>\n<p>[iframe &#8222;&lt;iframe src=&#8220;\/\/viz.blogs.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/globaleurope\/3214?lang=en&#8220; width=&#8220;800&#8243; height=&#8220;600&#8243; style=&#8220;border: 1px solid #eee&#8220; mozallowfullscreen=&#8220;true&#8220; webkitallowfullscreen=&#8220;true&#8220; allowfullscreen=&#8220;true&#8220;&gt;&lt;a href=&#8220;\/\/viz.blogs.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/globaleurope\/3214?lang=en&#8220; target=&#8220;_blank&#8220;&gt;GED VIZ Slideshow&lt;\/a&gt;&lt;\/iframe&gt;&#8220;]<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Currently benefits for UK businesses exporting to Ireland include the common membership to the European Union. Thus, British goods are exempt from import duties and common standards and technical regulations, to some extent, apply.<\/p>\n<p>Our recent study on the <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/globaleurope\/topics\/international-trade\/future_of_eu_single_market\/brexit\/nobody-wins-with-brexit\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dynamic effects of Brexit for all EU countries<\/a> has computed these effects. This study once again shows that a British withdrawal from the EU would have negative economic consequences for all 28 EU countries, especially for the UK itself. As we said in April this year:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/globaleurope\/2015\/04\/27\/press-release-brexit-expensive\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">A Brexit would be a losing game for everyone in Europe<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But the upcoming UK in-out referendum on staying or leaving the European Union will have an especially\u00a0substantial impact on the Irish economy.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Static Effects<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In our static analysis, the country which would suffer most from a Brexit is the UK, followed by\u00a0Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Cyprus and Belgium. [1]<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dynamic Effects<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ireland&#8217;s\u00a0economic dependence on British exports and imports would mean a \u201320.1% change in real per capita income (in the worst case scenario) and a \u20132.1% (in the best case scenario). In fact, in the best case scenario, Ireland would suffer a higher decrease in real per capita income (-2.1%) than the UK (-2.0%). [2]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2015\/12\/Brexit-Focus-Paper-Kopie.png\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-4975\" src=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2015\/12\/Brexit-Focus-Paper-Kopie.png\" alt=\"Brexit Focus Paper\" width=\"1841\" height=\"843\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2015\/12\/Brexit-Focus-Paper-Kopie.png 1841w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2015\/12\/Brexit-Focus-Paper-Kopie-768x352.png 768w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2015\/12\/Brexit-Focus-Paper-Kopie-1536x703.png 1536w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2015\/12\/Brexit-Focus-Paper-Kopie-300x137.png 300w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2015\/12\/Brexit-Focus-Paper-Kopie-1024x469.png 1024w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2015\/12\/Brexit-Focus-Paper-Kopie-600x275.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1841px) 100vw, 1841px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>European countries that would have to absorb above average losses due to a Brexit are led by Ireland, followed by Luxembourg, Belgium, Sweden, Malta and Cyprus.<\/p>\n<p>Do not miss our animated video on\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/globaleurope\/topics\/international-trade\/brexit\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Costs of Leaving the EU due to a Brexit<\/a><\/p>\n<p>You might be also interested in our\u00a0 studies on Brexit:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/fileadmin\/files\/BSt\/Publikationen\/GrauePublikationen\/NW_Focus_Paper_Brexit_2015_EN.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" >Dynamic Effects of Brexit for all EU countries<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2015\/04\/Costs-and-benefits-of-a-United-Kingdom-exit-from-the-European-Union.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Costs and benefits of a United Kingdom exit from the European Union<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5>[1] Static effects of a possible Brexit refer to the welfare losses due to less cross-border trade between the UK and the remaining 27 EU countries. A reduction of international trade reduces the economic advantages of international division of labour. Hence there would be less economic growth.<\/h5>\n<h5>[2] Dynamic effects are related to the fact that a decline in cross-border trade reduces the pressure from international competition. Consequently, companies have less need to improve their productivity through investments and innovation. Decreasing progress in productivity reduces the long-term rate of economic growth and hence diminishes the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.<\/h5>\n","excerpt":"<p>The Irish and the British economies are very closely integrated, with Ireland depending very strongly on exports to and imports from Britain.<\/p>\n","thumbnail":null,"thumbnailsquare":null,"authors":[{"id":4167,"name":"Ireland: The Biggest Loser from a Brexit?","link":false}],"categories":[{"id":152,"name":"Globalization","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/category\/globalization\/"}],"tags":[]}