{"id":35143,"title":"Old Habits Die Hard: Remaking the Transatlantic Partnership in EU and US Public Opinion","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/de\/europe-in-the-world\/old-habits-die-hard-remaking-the-transatlantic-partnership-in-eu-and-us-public-opinion\/","date":"5. Dezember 2024","date_unix":1733410176,"date_modified_unix":1748000316,"date_iso":"2024-12-05T14:49:36+00:00","content":"<p>A reframing of the transatlantic partnership has been in the making for a long time. For 60 years, the US-Europe relationship has been steadfast. But at the turn of the century, a rift started to emerge. Different threat analyses of Iraq\u2019s military capacities led to public disagreements between George W. Bush\u2019s administration and some European leaders. A few years later, the rise of China led to a pivot towards Asia-Pacific under Barack Obama\u2019s administration.<\/p>\n<p>When elected for the first time, Donald Trump viewed NATO as \u201cobsolete\u201d and the obstruction of his first G7 summit was followed by a sigh of frustration in a Bavarian beer tent that made headlines worldwide.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe times in which we can fully count on others are somewhat over, as I have experienced in the last few days,\u201d said then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel. \u201cWe Europeans must really take our destiny into our own hands.\u201d (McGee and Parker 2017)<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Old habits die hard. European politics moved much slower than the circumstances required. So did the European public. In eupinions surveys from 2017, the European public expressed their strong dislike of Trump. But at the same time, only 25 percent of Europeans agreed \u201cthat it is time to go our own way\u201d by the end of his first year in office. (De Vries and Hoffmann 2018)<\/p>\n<p>The 2020 Democratic win of the White House and Joe Biden\u2019s presidency seemed to mark a return to a more cooperative approach to the transatlantic relationship. But Trump\u2019s lesson could not be unlearned. Europeans had understood that the US was in the process of redefining their engagement with the world.<\/p>\n<p>This backdrop <strong>\u2013<\/strong> with Trump returning to the White House <strong>\u2013<\/strong> provides clarity about what to expect from the world\u2019s most powerful nation and the need for Europeans to adopt.<\/p>\n<p>In view of the 2024 US presidential election result, we revisited previous eupinions work and expanded our usual EU-wide sample by adding a US survey. Drawing on a September 2024 survey, we examined how citizens in Europe and the United States assess their role in the world, the threats they perceive and the allies they value. In <a href=\"https:\/\/eupinions.eu\/de\/text\/old-habits-die-hard\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><strong>Old Habits Die Hard<\/strong><\/a>, we present evidence of overall EU and US public opinion and a breakdown of the results by location, age, education and political leaning.<\/p>\n<p>In a nutshell, we see that 80 years of prime partnership have created a solid base of mutual appreciation and similar sensitivities. Europeans and Americans still see in the other their most valuable ally, NATO is highly regarded and cooperation trumps competition. However, eight years of American hyper-polarisation at home and mixed messaging abroad have taken their toll. In 2024, 63 percent of Europeans agree that it is time for Europe to go its own way.<\/p>\n<p>Here is a breakdown of the survey\u2019s key findings. To access the report with all results as infographics, including member-state data and subgroups please visit <a href=\"https:\/\/eupinions.eu\/de\/home\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><strong>www.eupinions.eu<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>51 percent of Europeans choose the United States as the European Union\u2019s most valuable ally. Americans point either to the EU (25 percent) or the UK (27 percent) as their most valuable ally.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"postContentEmbed\">\n<div class=\"embedContainer\"><iframe title=\"Europeans see the United States as the EU\u2019s most valuable ally\" aria-label=\"Stacked Bars\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-wdyt2\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/wdyt2\/2\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"317\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}}))}();<\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Europeans and Americans see NATO as a cornerstone of their security. 64 percent of Europeans and 59 percent of Americans believe that NATO protects against threats.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"postContentEmbed\">\n<div class=\"embedContainer\"><iframe title=\"Europeans and Americans value NATO as a cornerstone of their security\" aria-label=\"Stacked Bars\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-XLAyf\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/XLAyf\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"262\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}}))}();<\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>80 percent of Europeans and Americans believe that international relations thrive on cooperation, not competition.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"postContentEmbed\">\n<div class=\"embedContainer\"><iframe title=\"Europeans and Americans believe that international relations thrive on cooperation\" aria-label=\"Stacked Bars\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-KqbyY\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/KqbyY\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"262\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}}))}();<\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>Most Americans (65 percent) disagree with the notion that it is time for the US to go its own way, while most Europeans (63 percent) agree that the EU should do it alone.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"postContentEmbed\">\n<div class=\"embedContainer\"><iframe title=\"Europeans believe it is time for the EU to go its own way\" aria-label=\"Stacked Bars\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-5sFSM\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/5sFSM\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"304\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}}))}();<\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3><strong>What do these results mean for the EU under its new Commission and Council leadership?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>EU citizens seem to understand the need for more security and foreign affairs cooperation in Europe to deal with growing geopolitical challenges. But the question is: Will national government leaders of member states feel the same and allow the EU to meet this moment? So far, fragmentation, rather than unity, has been the name of the game when it comes to common foreign and security policy at the European level.<\/p>\n<p>In 2017, leaders needed time to adjust to a new transatlantic reality and reacted reluctantly. By now, they understand that the old America is not coming back. They cannot hope for the best. They need to prepare for the worst <strong>\u2013<\/strong> a US that is hyper-transactional, sometimes antagonistic, and self-centred.<\/p>\n<p>Given the political difficulties of coordinating security policies at the European level and the long time horizon required to build a European defence, different avenues to strengthen European security should be explored in the short term, whether it\u2019s within the framework of the EU or within the framework of bi- or multilateral agreements.<\/p>\n<p>Our results also lay bare uncomfortable truths about the nature of the EU-US relationship. No doubt the EU will have to chip in more to safeguard their own security, while the US will not be able to entirely pivot to the Asia-Pacific as wars continue to rage in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon. But how will the balance between assertiveness and cooperation be struck?<\/p>\n<p>The European and American public clearly value institutional cooperation initiatives that were built over the last century, primarily in the context of NATO. Simultaneously meeting demands for stepping up capacities while partnering with others is a tall task. This is especially difficult for politicians seeking to win in the court of public opinion and get re-elected. The responsibility to steer the transatlantic relationship through this difficult moment lies with the newly minted European and American leaderships. If they fail, consequences will be felt for generations.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Click here to download part 1 of the study:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/en\/publications\/publication\/did\/old-habits-die-hard\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-35157 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2024\/12\/euopinions-part-1-1.png\" alt=\"euopinions old habits die hard part 1\" width=\"1596\" height=\"896\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2024\/12\/euopinions-part-1-1.png 1596w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2024\/12\/euopinions-part-1-1-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2024\/12\/euopinions-part-1-1-1536x862.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1596px) 100vw, 1596px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Click here to download part 2 of the study:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/en\/publications\/publication\/did\/old-habits-die-hard-member-states-report\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-35153 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2024\/12\/euopinions.png\" alt=\"Old Habits Die Hard Member States Report\" width=\"1596\" height=\"897\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2024\/12\/euopinions.png 1596w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2024\/12\/euopinions-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2024\/12\/euopinions-1536x863.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1596px) 100vw, 1596px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>References:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>De Vries, C. E. and Hoffmann, I. (2018). Cold Love: President Trump and the European Public. <em>eupinions brief 2018\/1,<\/em> Bertelsmann Stiftung.<br \/>\nURL: <a href=\"https:\/\/eupinions.eu\/de\/text\/cold-love\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" >https:\/\/eupinions.eu\/de\/text\/cold-love<\/a><\/p>\n<p>De Vries, C. E., Hoffmann, I. and Hix, S. (2024). The Von der Leyen Effect: High visibility, low accountability. <em>eupinions report 2024\/1, <\/em>Bertelsmann Stiftung.<br \/>\nURL: <a href=\"https:\/\/eupinions.eu\/de\/text\/the-von-der-leyen-effect\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" >https:\/\/eupinions.eu\/de\/text\/the-von-der-leyen-effect<\/a><\/p>\n<p>McGee, P. and Parker, G. (2017). Europe cannot rely on US and faces life without UK, says Merkel. <em>Financial Times<\/em>, May 28.<br \/>\nURL: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/51ed8b90-43b9-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" >https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/51ed8b90-43b9-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>About the authors<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Isabell Hoffmann is Senior Expert at the Bertelsmann Stiftung and head of \u201e<a href=\"https:\/\/eupinions.eu\/de\/home\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">eupinions<\/a>\u201c. As an expert researcher on democracy and legitimacy in the European Union, she has managed research projects on the role of national parliaments in the EU as well as the origins and impact of populism, nationalism and authoritarianism in Europe.<\/p>\n<p>Catherine E. De Vries is the Generali Endowed Chair in European Policies and Professor of Political Science at Bocconi University, Milan.<\/p>\n","excerpt":"<p>A reframing of the transatlantic partnership has been in the making for a long time. For 60 years, the US-Europe [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","thumbnail":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2024\/12\/eupinions-header.png","thumbnailsquare":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2024\/12\/eupinions-header.png","authors":[{"id":29193,"name":"Isabell Hoffmann","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/blogger\/senior-expert-european-integration\/"},{"id":34400,"name":"Catherine E. De Vries","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/de\/blogger\/catherine-de-vries\/"}],"categories":[{"id":597,"name":"Europe in the World","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/category\/europe-in-the-world\/"}],"tags":[{"id":202,"name":"eu","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/tag\/eu\/"},{"id":422,"name":"euopinions","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/tag\/euopinions\/"},{"id":263,"name":"European Union","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/tag\/european-union\/"},{"id":151,"name":"Publications","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/tag\/publications\/"}]}