The last hours of every American election campaign are characterised by breathless campaign appearances, strong imagery and sharp-tongued appeals to motivate a base, while bringing independents in from the sidelines. The frenetic pace distracts from critical, structural elements to watch as the hours tick down toward the official determination of the result.<\/p>\n
Beyond the campaign rhetoric, here are five structural issues to watch on, around and beyond election day:<\/p>\n
In 2020, the Trump campaign built the lie of a stolen election and massive electoral fraud around a set of more than 60 often hastily assembled lawsuits. Many of these cases were struck down on the basis that there was little or no legal precedent for vote tampering, foreign citizen voting, ballot stuffing, voting machine interference and a series of other issues that were alleged at the time. In the run-up to this election, the Trump campaign has laid a trail of so-called breadcrumbs by continuously noting it will only accept results if it is a \u201cfair, legal and good election\u201d and accusing the opposing side of cheating prior to election day.<\/p>\n
By filing 115 separate lawsuits ahead of this election, there is a concerted effort in place to create legal precedence that might be needed to make allegations of electoral interference stick during and after. It is a stalling tactic that might work \u2013 at least while cases move through judicial proceedings \u2013 to hold up final certification of the vote.<\/p>\n
Florida, Texas and Ohio<\/a>, for example, are suing the Department of Homeland Security to review hundreds of thousands of potential non-citizen voters Texas alone would like 450,000 voters to be reviewed by 5 November in a last-minute lawsuit.<\/p>\n Experts call these lawsuits \u201czombies,\u201d as there is no evidence for the veracity of these claims. For example, in more than 8.2. million voters in Georgia this year, only 20 of these voters were non-citizens<\/a>. These are primarily intended to set precedence marker lawsuits that can be referred to after the election, delay certification and force the federal government into a holding pattern.<\/p>\n Trump strategist Steven Miller has advised Republican states on this tactic, down to the language of the lawsuits\u2019 filing. \u00a0An actual legal victory is secondary to creating enough distrust in the system and an official paper trail \u2013 legal breadcrumbs \u2013 to give potential lawsuits over voting and ballot integrity greater sway in courts, particularly ones now overseen by the historic number of judges<\/a> President Trump appointed in his four years in office.<\/p>\n Additionally, crowdsourced \u201celection integrity teams\u201d have self-identified<\/a>, following training by MAGA advisors. These teams are recording firsthand accounts, connecting this information using social media and reporting in to the Republican National Committee, which spearheaded these efforts in summer 2024.<\/a> More than 60 percent<\/a> of electoral officials feel their jobs<\/a> \u2013 and lives \u2013 are less safe as a result of disinformation and other efforts to sow doubt over the integrity of the vote.<\/p>\n Generally, it is useful to note that the 2020 election was considered a historically safe, and many states have since updated their voting laws to assure even greater accountability. Thousands of jurisdictions across the country run elections across the 50 states in a bipartisan system that has neutral control levers. However, the spread of functional election processes across many jurisdictions can be a strength \u2013 or it can open opportunities for these systems to be weakened at the local root.<\/p>\n The US voting system, with the separation of electoral college and popular vote, has long been criticised. Local review boards have taken on these critiques in decisions to use different electoral procedures for local and state-wide elections<\/a>, or to change the composition of a voting district away from partisan dynamics<\/a> to greater reflect an area\u2019s political diversity. But when used as a political tactic, several states critical to the 2024 elections have made changes to their electoral proceedings. These changes could further weaken trust in the vote, if they stay in place.<\/p>\n For months, voter rolls have been purged in the swing state of Arizona<\/a>. In Virginia<\/a>, during the so-called 90-day quiet period when voters are not to be disenfranchised, voting officials did just that. They purged 1,600 voters from their rolls, a case that made it to the Supreme Court just days ahead of the election. Virginia\u2019s Republican judges allowed the purge through a temporary decision. A politicised battle over voting access is on, with changes to access to the franchise and its system occurring in an already-running election. Two recent decisions in Georgia, with 16 electoral college votes on the line, stand out \u2013 even if these attempts were ultimately struck down. The mere attempt of fundamental changes to voting procedure during a running national election is of concern.<\/p>\n Procedural changes to vote-processing stood out on the one hand for the capacity of election officials to be co-opted for party political purposes and on the other hand for the somewhat surprising capacity of politicized courts to reverse these decisions. Less than two weeks before voting started, the Republican-controlled Georgia State Election Board passed a rule on hand-counting ballots<\/a>. In past elections, this has been proven to deliver high error counts<\/a>, but at first blush, it seems to create greater accountability in local voting.<\/p>\n Another rule based on the suspicion of \u201cundefined discrepancies\u201d in the vote,<\/a> would have allowed local election officials to refuse the certification of votes. This could potentially throw the outcome of the election into limbo, certainly into the courts, up to the Supreme Court. Here, Republican strategists behind these initiatives hope that Trump-appointed justices might secure a legal victory, invalidating certain results.<\/p>\n A Republican judge struck these two rule changes down<\/a>, but the Trump team has appealed in an already-running election. These shifts are remarkable for the capacity of MAGA strategists to usurp formerly politically neutral election bodies, while placing citizen votes into legal limbo right when voting begins.<\/p>\n Foreign actor-steered dis- and misinformation, electronic interference (hacking) and social engineering, including through proven cases<\/a> from Russia<\/a>\u2014see also here<\/a>, Iran<\/a> and China<\/a>, which has made recent headlines for espionage and direct access to electoral candidates and US policy-makers\u2014have all increased and accelerated. Domestic disinformation spreaders will likely continue to rely on low-cost\/high-impact tactics<\/u>, often powered by generative AI, to suppress voter participation on election day and in the hours after the poll close. Despite increasing awareness of its dangers and better training in active response measures, audio disinformation remains particularly hard to trace.<\/p>\n As a result, it has become the accelerated tool of choice, aside from electronically spread lies around ballot stuffing and slow counting, to indicate irregularities and misinformation aimed at sending swing state voters to false polling locations or discouraging them from voting at all. Ballot stuffing and slow counting<\/a>, to indicate irregularities and misinformation aimed at sending swing state voters to false polling locations or discouraging them from voting at all.<\/p>\n Self-proclaimed free-speech activist Elon Musk has done as much to injure the concept<\/a>, actively allowing hate-speech on X, formerly known as Twitter. Musk has cut the site\u2019s election integrity unit, instead actively supporting a Trump candidature. This has even included creating a petition-framed workaround to entice voting registration and a commitment to Trump\u2019s candidacy \u2013 while holding more than $15 billion in federal defence contracts, making the government dependent on his oligarchic power<\/a>.<\/p>\n Aside from direct impact on turnout and actual election tallies in close counties and tight races, particularly in swing states, disinformation has caused physical harm and exacerbated political violence in a volatile political climate. Lies about FEMA, the US federal aid agency for domestic emergencies, seizing private property to dig for lithium, served as a call to action for armed interference. This forcing FEMA to temporarily halt aid services in Rutherford County, NC, when physical threats became a reality<\/a>.<\/p>\n One of the most visceral post-election threats is immediate political violence to destabilise the country. In the last week of October, a gunman who shot at a Democratic Party official in Arizona was found to have been preparing a \u201cmass casualty event\u201d<\/a>. In March 2024, a representative PBS News Hour\/NPR\/Marist poll<\/a> found that one in five Americans believe political violence could be justified to \u201cget the country back on track.\u201d Republicans surveyed were more likely than Democrats or Independents \u2013 and slightly more likely than the overall population \u2013 to say force may be necessary. Instead of serving as a disincentive, the assassination attempts on former President Trump have served as an additional rallying call. Statistically, one in three Americans own a gun.<\/p>\n Since the 6 January riots at the US capitol, which threatened hundreds in the building and claimed seven lives, the radicalised instigators, including the Proud Boys and other decentralised paramilitary organisations have been regrouping. Self-governing chapters<\/a> in 40 states have been animated, in part, by direct descriptions from Trump advisers, that a \u201csecond American revolution<\/a>,\u201d is in the offing, bloodless only if militia groups do not meet active resistance.<\/p>\n The Global Project against Hate and Extremism has tracked rhetoric related to election denialism rising 317 percent during October 2024, including direct incitement on Telegram<\/a> to justify an apparent \u201cimmediate civil war\u201d and a call to \u201cshoot to kill any illegal voters\u201d. Such offensive threats, coupled with the proliferation of weapons on American streets, has prompted local law enforcement to step up polling protection, which civil rights groups view critically<\/a>.<\/p>\n Strong police presence can seem akin to voter intimidation in certain places, where local police unions have endorsed former President Trump. Trump himself has expressed his desire to increase police immunity in active duty and threats to deploy law enforcement on American streets to suppress protest.<\/p>\n These elements may come together to create destabilising energy around the election precisely because the ultimate count will take time. Legal questioning and wrangling over certification processes in narrow races could warrant legitimate recounts. In addition \u2013 and as a normal part of the process \u2013 Congressional races in several key states, including States that traditionally break for the Democratic presidential candidate, will send mixed delegations to the House and Senate.<\/p>\n Toss-up races in New York and California are likely. House races in California are expected to come down to the wire<\/a> and final results are unlikely to be available until days \u2013 or even weeks \u2013 after the election. In 2000, it took more than a month to recount Florida\u2019s ballots, and, in 2020, it took more than four days to cement the final electoral count. Election calls are based largely on exit polls,<\/a> centrally coordinated, and have rightly suffered tougher scrutiny since 2000.<\/p>\n Though early and mail voting is allowed in decisive swing state Pennsylvania, officials cannot start counting ballots until 7:00 am on election day and that process has already ended up in court<\/a>. 2020 saw a neck-and-neck race for the state over four days, with President Biden ultimately declared the winner.<\/p>\n With drastically different visions for the future of the United States, razor-thin polling predictions, assassination attempts and candidate changes, 2024 is already a historic election. But how these five factors play out around the election itself will determine whether US democracy emerges resilient and strengthened from these tests \u2013 or suffers grievous injury from which there might be no rapid recovery.<\/p>\n About the author<\/strong><\/p>\n Cathryn is a German-American political analyst and Senior Advisor in the Bertelsmann Stiftung\u2019s Sustainable Social Market Economies Programme with a focus on Transatlantic trade and security relations, economic resilience and industrial strategy, tech policy and digital diplomacy.<\/p>\n Read more about the U.S.<\/strong><\/p>\n Trump 2.0: What is at Stake for Europe and Germany<\/a><\/p>\n US-Israel Relations Ahead of the US Presidential Election<\/a><\/p>\n2. Active weakening of the credibility of the voting system<\/strong><\/h2>\n
3. Election night disinformation<\/strong><\/h2>\n
4. Active voter intimidation and political violence<\/strong><\/h2>\n
5. Delayed certification and final vote tallies<\/strong><\/h2>\n