{"id":34845,"title":"Infelix Austria? The Complex Realities Behind the Upcoming Austrian Elections","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/de\/europe-in-the-world\/infelix-austria-the-complex-realities-behind-the-upcoming-austrian-elections\/","date":"4. September 2024","date_unix":1725449067,"date_modified_unix":1747996312,"date_iso":"2024-09-04T11:24:27+00:00","content":"<p><em>The concept of \u201c<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Pax_Austriaca#cite_note-Burian1983-4\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><em>tu felix Austria<\/em><\/a><em>\u201d or \u201chappy Austria\u201d was coined by Emperor Maximilian I during his 16th century reign when he expanded the Habsburg territories through marriages, rather than war. In modern times, Austria has often been praised as one of Europe\u2019s most economically advanced countries. It is admired for its high standard of living, societal equality, including incomes, and world-class public services. The country boasts an excellent social system, affordable and punctual public transport, and a rich cultural heritage that makes it a top destination for international tourists. <\/em><em>Vienna<\/em><em>, the impressive capital city, <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eiu.com\/n\/vienna-secures-its-position-as-the-worlds-most-liveable-city-for-third-consecutive-year\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><em>regularly ranks highly as one the best places to live<\/em><\/a><em> in the world. <\/em><\/p>\n<p>Yet, despite the country\u2019s many advantages, the concept of \u201ctu felix Austria\u201d is being challenged. There is a growing sense of dissatisfaction is sweeping through the Austrian population, potentially leading to seismic shift in the political landscape.<\/p>\n<p>As the 29 September Nationalratswahlen (National Council elections) approach, Austria finds itself on the brink of a significant political transformation. The right-wing populist Freedom Party (FP\u00d6) is poised to emerge as the leading party, followed by the conservative People\u2019s Party (\u00d6VP) and the Social Democrats (SP\u00d6) locked in a tight race, each hovering around 20 percent of the vote.<\/p>\n<p>The Greens, who govern in coalition with the \u00d6VP, are likely to fall below 10 percent and could be overtaken by the liberal party, NEOS. The Beer Party, a satirical project, and the communist party KP\u00d6 could enter parliament too. However, the election campaigns have only just started and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/10\/17\/world\/europe\/austria-sebastian-kurz-scandal-chancellor.html\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">past polling scandals<\/a> have cast doubt on these projections, so the outcome is still uncertain.<\/p>\n<p>But one thing that is certain is the potentially profound consequences of this election. If the FP\u00d6 becomes the leading party for the first time, Austria could see the rise of a right-wing, Eurosceptic government, with the added complication of a fragmented political landscape that could require a three-party coalition to govern effectively. But what has led Austria, a nation that seems to have it all, to this precarious point?<\/p>\n<h2>1. Stagnation in economic development<\/h2>\n<p>Austria\u2019s economy, while superficially robust, is facing significant challenges that have fuelled public discontent. The COVID-19 pandemic hit Austria harder than the EU average, particularly affecting its important tourism sector.<\/p>\n<p>The economic decline was followed by a smaller, slower recovery with a negative GDP growth in 2023. This performance was worse than Germany\u2019s situation, with whom Austria\u2019s economy is deeply intertwined, and that of Italy, Austria\u2019s second most important trading partner.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ihs.ac.at\/publications-hub\/blog\/fiscal-policies-in-austria-during-the-covid-19-pandemic\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The government responded to COVID-19 by stabilising demand and supply<\/a>, even though only supply was affected by the economic shock of the pandemic. Support measures were massive in volume and created a proliferation of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/financial-stability-publications\/fsr\/special\/html\/ecb.fsrart202105_01~f9b060744e.en.html\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">zombie firms<\/a> \u2013 unproductive businesses that rely on government aid to survive. This is evidenced by the low <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ksv.at\/insolvenzstatistik\/insolvenzstatistik-1-halbjahr-2024\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">exit rate<\/a> of firms, a figure that is now on the rise with the withdrawal of state assistance.<\/p>\n<div class=\"postContentEmbed\">\n<div class=\"embedContainer\"><iframe title=\"Sluggish development of Austrian GDP\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-JyJLz\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/JyJLz\/9\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"466\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}}))}();<\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Ill-targeted policy measures came at a cost for the people, as Austria is now confronted with high levels of inflation. This problem is more severe in Austria than in Germany and Italy, remaining persistently higher than the EU average and substantially higher than neighbouring <a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/globalization\/the-strong-swiss-franc-and-5-other-reasons-for-switzerlands-low-inflation\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" >Switzerland<\/a>. Additionally, poorly designed price subsidy measures, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.derstandard.at\/story\/3000000180629\/bremse-f252r-die-strompreisbremse\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">such as the Stromkostenbremse<\/a>, a contentious electricity price cap, are not considered as effective countermeasures, even though frustrations are rising with the cost of living.<\/p>\n<div class=\"postContentEmbed\">\n<div class=\"embedContainer\"><iframe title=\"Persistent High Inflation in Austria\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-YV0pP\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/YV0pP\/5\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"468\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}}))}();<\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>But economic stagnation in Austria predated the pandemic. With growth rates near or below the EU average and inflation stubbornly above the EU average, the Austrian economy stagnated \u2013 and so did people\u2019s incomes. Adjusted for purchasing power, the Slovakian capital, <a href=\"https:\/\/wiiw.ac.at\/bratislava-and-vienna-twin-cities-with-big-development-potentials-dlp-4629.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bratislava, just 55km from Vienna, now outpaces the Austrian capital<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The roots of this stagnation lie in an ageing society, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.produktivitaetsrat.at\/publikationen\/prod-jahresberichte.html\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">declining productivity<\/a>, a lack of venture capital, shortages of STEM graduates who are crucial for the green and digital transition, rising perception of corruption, as well as inefficient policies in innovation, education and the <a href=\"https:\/\/op.europa.eu\/en\/publication-detail\/-\/publication\/680d6391-2142-11ee-94cb-01aa75ed71a1\/language-en\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">labour market<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, Austria\u2019s economy is regionally fragmented. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.derstandard.at\/story\/3000000228310\/tourismus-boomt-fast-vollbesch228ftigung-in-salzburg-und-tirol\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tourism-dependent western regions<\/a> face different challenges to the industrial core in Upper and Lower Austria. Labour shortages are more acute in rural, tourism-heavy areas, exacerbated by inadequate public infrastructure, such as childcare services. This regional disparity, coupled with a lack of coherent strategies, has deepened public frustration in the hinterland.<\/p>\n<h2>2. A complex relationship with Russia<\/h2>\n<p>Austria has long maintained close ties with Russia, positioning itself as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oeaw.ac.at\/en\/isr\/housing-and-urban-economy\/project-archive\/vienna-in-the-world-system\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gateway between East and West<\/a>. This relationship proved lucrative, with Vienna becoming the European headquarters for Russian companies, such as Sberbank, Lukoil and Gazprom. Austria has attracted wealthy Russian oligarchs, drawn by the country\u2019s high quality of life and banking secrecy. Vienna, known as a hub for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/a-den-of-spies-vienna-emerges-as-hub-for-russian-espionage-9dda8b4d\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Russian espionage<\/a>, further solidified these ties.<\/p>\n<p>Austrian companies have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/austria-russia-vladimir-putin-alpine-fortress-ukraine\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">invested heavily in Russia<\/a> too. For example, Raiffeisen Bank remains the largest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/finance-and-economics\/2024\/06\/06\/european-banks-are-making-heady-profits-in-russia\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">foreign bank operating in Russia<\/a>, with about half of its profits generated there in past years. Similarly, OMV, Austria\u2019s largest partially state-owned company, is a significant player in Russia\u2019s energy sector, and companies, <a href=\"https:\/\/leave-russia.org\/egger\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">such as Egger, play a significant role in the timber industry<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The Russian invasion of Ukraine has complicated this relationship. Austria is obligated to adhere to the EU\u2019s sanctions against Russia, yet many Austrian firms still operate there, hoping for a return to business as usual. The <a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/europes-future\/sanctions-against-russia-what-can-we-learn-from-the-past\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" >cost of sanctions against Russia is considered too high<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This reluctance to sever ties with Russia reflects broader political sentiments, particularly as past leaders maintained close relationships with Russian interests. For example, ex-chancellor Christian Kern had <a href=\"https:\/\/www.transportjournal.com\/fr\/home\/news\/artikeldetail\/ex-chancellor-kern-leaves-russian-state-railways.html\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a stint on the Russian Railways board of directors<\/a>, and former foreign minister Karin Kneissl welcomed Vladimir Putin at her <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/karin-kneissl-wedding-vladimir-putin-invite-controversy\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2018 wedding<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This melange makes politicians and people hopeful for a return to the old world order, dreaming of a better yesterday. The severity of this widespread thinking is underpinned by Austria\u2019s heavy dependency on Russian energy.<\/p>\n<p>In 2018, ex-chancellor Sebastian Kurz signed a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.derstandard.at\/story\/3000000227875\/omv-gew228hrt-kommission-einsicht-in-gazprom-vertr228ge\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">contract with Gazprom for Russian gas until 2040 without disclosing the full details<\/a>. Today, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/analysis\/future-european-union-gas-imports-balancing-different-objectives\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Austrian imports of Russian gas<\/a> continue to grow. It is unclear how this critical dependency can be resolved \u2013 or how Austria can comply with EU\u2019s RePowerEU goal to phase out Russian gas completely by 2027.<\/p>\n<div class=\"postContentEmbed\">\n<div class=\"embedContainer\"><iframe title=\"Increasing reliance on Russian gas\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-6kpOG\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/6kpOG\/4\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"437\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}}))}();<\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>3. Decarbonisation efforts falling short<\/h2>\n<p>Austria\u2019s reliance on Russian gas underscores another critical issue \u2013 the country\u2019s lagging decarbonisation efforts. Despite its vast potential for renewable energy, particularly hydropower, Austria has made little progress in transitioning to a climate-neutral economy. The EU\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.consilium.europa.eu\/en\/policies\/green-deal\/fit-for-55\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FitFor55 package<\/a>, an interim step for the Green Deal, aims to reduce CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions to 55 percent of 1990 levels. This is unlikely to be achieved in Austria, where emissions fluctuate around 1990s levels today.<\/p>\n<div class=\"postContentEmbed\">\n<div class=\"embedContainer\"><iframe title=\"Austria is unfit for 55\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-LFDpH\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/LFDpH\/3\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"486\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}}))}();<\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.umweltbundesamt.at\/fileadmin\/site\/publikationen\/rep0892.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">transport sector<\/a> presents the greatest decarbonisation challenge, offsetting gains made in other areas, such as industry and agriculture. Austria\u2019s position as a transit country, meaning that emissions from traffic passing through are partially attributed to the country, is unfortunate, but not the major root cause of persistently high emissions, as often claimed.<\/p>\n<p>Political inertia, as demonstrated by Austria\u2019s delayed submission of its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euractiv.com\/section\/energy-environment\/news\/austria-submits-2030-climate-plan-late-as-germany-spain-flout-june-deadline\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2030 climate plan<\/a>, is hampering progress towards becoming climate-neutral. Some efforts have been made, such as an attractive public transport ticket that covers the whole country, and CO<sub>2<\/sub> pricing coupled with a per-capita reimbursement scheme.<\/p>\n<p>But it seems there is no full consensus on how to implement the green transition, as demonstrated in June 2024 when Austrian environment minister Leonore Gewessler risked blowing up the coalition to approve the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/rogue-austria-environment-minister-leonore-gewessler-burns-bridges-save-eu-nature-restoration-law\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">EU\u2019s nature restoration law<\/a>, despite opposition from Chancellor Karl Nehammer. This situation creates mixed signals about how seriously the government takes decarbonisation, leading to limited public acceptance. In this sense, Austria is not fit for 55.<\/p>\n<h2>4. Mixed feelings about the EU<\/h2>\n<p>Since joining the bloc in 1995, the Austrian relationship with the EU has always been ambivalent. While the country has benefited strongly from EU membership \u2013 with economic welfare gains of \u20ac1,583 per capita ranking Austria among the top beneficiaries of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/en\/publications\/publication\/did\/estimating-economic-benefits-of-the-single-market-for-european-countries-and-regions\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Single Market<\/a> \u2013 many Austrians remain sceptical. Structural changes in <a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/erae\/article\/46\/5\/713\/5183522\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">agriculture<\/a> and the fall of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/books\/abs\/rise-and-fall-of-stateowned-enterprise-in-the-western-world\/fifty-years-of-stateowned-industry-in-austria-19461996\/8F1374B6F04ED85C573AEEC0EC935890\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">non-competitive, state-owned industries<\/a> have taken place in parallel to EU integration, contributing to a sense of unease.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/europa.eu\/eurobarometer\/surveys\/detail\/3216\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Spring 2024 Standard Eurobarometer 101 survey<\/a> shows that only 38 percent of Austrians view the EU positively, compared to an EU-27 average of 44 percent. Scepticism is particularly pronounced regarding EU enlargement, despite parts of the political spectrum supporting Western Balkan countries joining the union.<\/p>\n<p>Fears of increased labour migration and severe concerns about military neutrality are driving negative perceptions. Austrians see themselves as a stronghold against military cooperation with the EU and the NATO, which is regularly underscored by the lowest approval for military and security cooperation \u2013 even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>Politicians across the spectrum have capitalised on this scepticism, often using the EU as a scapegoat for unpopular policies, while selectively endorsing EU measures that benefit Austria. This strategy has eroded trust in the EU and the Austrian government, contributing to a broader sense of disillusionment.<\/p>\n<h2>5. Populist policy-making with high media concentration<\/h2>\n<p>Austria\u2019s political landscape has been shaped by a tradition of populist policymaking, often driven by short-term considerations, rather than long-term solutions. The country\u2019s highly concentrated media landscape exacerbates these issues. ORF, the public broadcaster, is perceived as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euractiv.com\/section\/politics\/news\/experts-criticise-new-law-gutting-austrian-public-broadcaster-orf\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">politicised<\/a>, while <a href=\"https:\/\/www.krone.at\/3404527\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kronen Zeitung<\/a>, Austria\u2019s most popular tabloid is read by around half of the population, giving it significant influence over public opinion.<\/p>\n<p>This environment has led to populist policies that fail to address Austria\u2019s underlying challenges. The lack of evidence-based policymaking, despite the presence of respected research institutes, has left many of Austria\u2019s most pressing issues unresolved.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, multiple political scandals \u2013 such as <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ibiza_affair\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ibiza-gate<\/a>, the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Kurz_corruption_probe\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kurz corruption probe<\/a>, the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/2011_cash_for_influence_scandal\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">cash for influence scandal<\/a>, the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Telekom_Austria_Affair\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Telekom Austria affair<\/a>, the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hypo_Alpe_Adria_Bank\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hypo Alpe Adria bank failure<\/a>, the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Immofinanz#BUWOG_affair\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BUWOG affair<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/BAWAG\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" >BAWAG fraud<\/a> to name just a few \u2013 have dominated public debate.<\/p>\n<p>From ex-chancellor Sebastian Kurz\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.derstandard.at\/story\/2000143433508\/mister-message-control-wer-hat-angst-vor-gerald-fleischmann\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u201cmessage control\u201d strategy<\/a> to the <a href=\"https:\/\/kurier.at\/kultur\/werner-faymann-inseratenkanzler-a-d\/197.735.431\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SP\u00d6 paying for advertising in exchange<\/a> for favourable media coverage and the <a href=\"https:\/\/felixsimon.medium.com\/undermining-the-press-one-post-at-a-time-4bd7493486ef\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FP\u00d6 undermining the credibility of media<\/a>, Austrian politics has often prioritised image over substance, leading to growing frustration among people.<\/p>\n<h2>Outlook: A political earthquake in the making<\/h2>\n<p>Could \u201ctu felix Austria\u201d be replaced by \u201cinfelix Austria\u201d? As the September election looms, Austria seems poised for a political earthquake. If the FP\u00d6 wins, Austria could see a shift towards autocratic tendencies, similar to developments in neighbouring Hungary and Slovakia. The formation of a new government may prove challenging, with potential coalitions complicated by deep-seated rivalries and the need for a three-party alliance.<\/p>\n<p>An FP\u00d6-led government under Herbert Kickl could threaten the rule of law, with potential efforts to undermine the justice system, cut social transfers, and control the media. One has to hope that the corporative and federal system is strong enough to defend democracy.<\/p>\n<p>For the EU, instability will be a challenge as Euroscepticism has grown with the FP\u00d6 in the government further. The outgoing coalition demonstrated difficulties in participating in and implementing of EU policies, such as the Green Deal, management of relations with Russia and deeper European integration in general.<\/p>\n<p>An <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/viktor-orban-fidesz-form-new-far-right-alliance-austria-czech-republic\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FP\u00d6 government will likely intensify cooperation with Mr. Orban\u2019s FIDESZ<\/a> to undermine European efforts to decarbonise and avoid facing new geopolitical realities, while expanding national-focused policymaking with anti-migration and anti-liberal elements.<\/p>\n<p>Regardless of the election outcome, Austria\u2019s underlying problems will not disappear. Ignoring these issues, particularly in areas such as climate change mitigation, will only increase the costs and efforts required in the future. Addressing these challenges with better policymaking could not only provide political solutions, but revitalise Austria\u2019s economy, ensuring that the country\u2019s prosperity is sustained long-term because \u2013 and not despite \u2013 politics.<\/p>\n<p><strong>About the author<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Thomas Schwab, Senior Expert for European economics at the Bertelsmann Stiftung\u2019s \u201cEurope\u2019s Future\u201d programme, specialises in analysing economic policy, with a particular emphasis on territorial inequalities.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Read more about the many elections this year on our <a title=\"\u200c\" href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/tag\/eu-elections-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer ugc\">2024 Elections page<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","excerpt":"<p>The concept of \u201ctu felix Austria\u201d or \u201chappy Austria\u201d was coined by Emperor Maximilian I during his 16th century reign [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","thumbnail":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2024\/09\/Austria-Elections.jpg","thumbnailsquare":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2024\/09\/Austria-Elections.jpg","authors":[{"id":29085,"name":"Thomas Schwab","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/blogger\/thomas-schwab\/"}],"categories":[{"id":597,"name":"Europe in the World","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/category\/europe-in-the-world\/"}],"tags":[{"id":590,"name":"Austria","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/tag\/austria\/"},{"id":202,"name":"eu","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/tag\/eu\/"},{"id":584,"name":"eu elections 2024","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/tag\/eu-elections-2024\/"},{"id":263,"name":"European Union","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/tag\/european-union\/"},{"id":574,"name":"GED elections","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/tag\/ged-elections\/"}]}