{"id":3191,"title":"Argentina Election 2015: Polls Point to Scioli","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/de\/globalization\/argentina-election-2015-polls-point-to-scioli\/","date":"8. Juli 2015","date_unix":1436355197,"date_modified_unix":1436355197,"date_iso":"2015-07-08T11:33:17+00:00","content":"

This Post is part of \u00a0Samuel George\u2019s\u00a0ongoing series \u201c<\/em>Argentina at a Crossroads<\/em><\/a>\u201d in the run up to general elections in 2015.<\/em><\/p>\n

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After a trip to Buenos Aires earlier this year, I was not surprised to hear private-sector\u00a0economists argue that non-peronist PRO candidate Maurcio Macri\u00a0should\u00a0win the presidential election scheduled for October 25, 2015.<\/p>\n

After all, Macri, currently\u00a0Chief\u00a0of Government of the city of Buenos Aires, shares their belief that Argentina ought to\u00a0adopt\u00a0more market-oriented policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I was surprised, however, that they thought Macri\u00a0could\u00a0win.<\/p>\n

The conventional wisdom on Argentina is that the opposition to President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner\u00a0is weak\u00a0and that, anyway, it is very difficult to win an election as a non-peronist (let alone govern in a country where powerful trade unions can typically only been corralled by peronist leaders).<\/p>\n

The theoretical party-prerequisite for a presidential candidate was one reason Sergio Massa was able\u00a0to establish a degree of momentum in 2014<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As a peronist who split from President Kirchner, he seemed like a candidate that\u00a0might\u00a0rally the base without falling victim to Kirchner fatigue.<\/p>\n

However, as the October election nears, Massa\u2019s\u00a0attempt to split the difference could ultimately be his\u00a0undoing: Core-peronists will likely plump for Daniel Scioli of the Kirchners\u2019\u00a0Partido Justicialista\u00a0(PJ) wing of the peronist movement, and the folks seeking change will vote Macri.<\/p>\n

So if Massa\u2019s\u00a0star is fading<\/a>, the election will likely come down to tight competition between the government aligned Daniel Scioli, currently Governor of Buenos Aires Province, and the reformist Macri.<\/p>\n

Macri seemed\u00a0the candidate with momentum<\/a>\u00a0earlier this year, and\u00a0some seem to think he\u00a0can win<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But when I ran this perception past administration insiders, their reaction was surprisingly sanguine, and, overall, relatively confident that Scioli will emerge victorious.<\/p>\n

They do not exactly guarantee victory, but one top-level official offered his opinion that Scioli has a 40 percent chance to win, Macri 30 percent, Massa 25 percent, and 5 percent chance for a dark horse. (Here it\u2019s important to note that President Kirchner has not officially endorsed Scioli, though Scioli\u2019s naming of Carlos Zannini, a close Kirchner confidant, as his perspective VP would seem to seal the deal.)<\/p>\n

Now,\u00a0a new poll seems to support this confidence.<\/p>\n

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