{"id":28675,"title":"From Olympics 2021 to Japan’s General Election\u00a0","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/de\/europe-in-the-world\/from-olympics-2021-to-japans-general-election\/","date":"29. Oktober 2021","date_unix":1635524289,"date_modified_unix":1764244765,"date_iso":"2021-10-29T16:18:09+00:00","content":"

How Japan’s pandemic and economic situation has evolved since then<\/strong> <\/em><\/h3>\n

Ahead of the Olympics in Tokyo in August<\/a> we looked at Japan’s position in the global economy and its management of the pandemic so far. We also took a bet on Japan’s medal chances. With Japan’s upcoming general election in mind, we evaluate the developments since then and look at key challenges for Japan’s government after the election. <\/em><\/p>\n

Political developments prior to the election<\/strong><\/h2>\n

On October 31, Japan will hold a general election for the House of Representatives, \u00a0the lower chamber of Parliament, with 465 seats to be filled. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) called the election shortly after taking office on October 4.<\/p>\n

His two predecessors (Yoshihide Suga and Shinzo Abe) had to step down one after the other within only one year due to their handling of the Corona pandemic.<\/p>\n

Polls see<\/a> the LPD, Japan’s ruling party since 2012, at around 30 percent, far ahead of the biggest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), at approximately 12 percent. However, on October 24, the LDP lost one of two Councillor seats in Shizuoka Prefecture in the House of Councillors (Japan’s upper chamber of Parliament) by-election.<\/p>\n

Falling just one week ahead of the general election, Japanese media <\/a>regard this as a „red flag“ for PM Kishida and his party. This may also be a reminder that the LPD-led government had incurred the displeasure of the Japanese people when it decided to hold the Olympic Games in Tokyo despite the rampant coronavirus.<\/p>\n

The majority of Japan’s population did not want the Games to take place amidst a global pandemic, fearing infection numbers would soar and further damage be done to the already battered economy. So let’s first have a look at whether these fears have become a reality.<\/p>\n

Pandemic and economic development in Japan since the Olympics<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Considering only the athletes themselves, around\u00a011,300 people from 205 nations\u00a0participated in the Olympic Games in Tokyo when only 23 percent of the\u00a0Japanese people were fully vaccinated \u2013 a low rate compared with other G7 countries<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This \u2013 combined with the quick spread of the Delta Variant and already rising daily cases before the opening ceremony \u2013 was why there were worries about holding the\u00a0Olympics.<\/p>\n

The pandemic development in Japan proved worriers right: in the two weeks of the games, the average number of daily cases nearly tripled. Cumulatively, cases were up by one-third and even doubled one month after the Olympics.<\/p>\n

The death rate rose by ten percent in the same period. The impact from the Olympics can be seen very clearly from the data, which shows that big sports events still pose a high risk, even with strict health security measures in place.<\/p>\n

However, the data also shows that the impact was short-lived: Daily new confirmed cases have plummeted since mid-September, and the cumulative number of cases is stagnating. The incoming government has been given a break to think pandemic management through before numbers go up again \u2013 if they do.<\/p>\n

\"pandemic<\/a><\/p>\n

As for the Olympics‘ impact on Japan’s economic development, it is still hard to say as not many monthly and quarterly data points have yet been published. Monthly GDP data are available from the Japan Center for Economic Research<\/a>, but only through August.<\/p>\n

They show that Japan’s GDP decreased by 0.9 percent in August compared to the previous month \u2013 the strongest monthly slump in 2021. This is mainly attributed to a decrease in private investment and consumption \u2013 the two sectors were among those official estimates<\/a> saw as most benefiting from the Games.<\/p>\n

If the Games had taken place under non-pandemic circumstances, they would have brought a wave of domestic and international spectators to Tokyo and substantially increased economic activity. Even though monthly GDP data are volatile in times of a health crisis, and we do not yet know the longer-term impact of the Games, they did not deliver the anticipated economic benefits. The picture is entirely different for Japan’s medal count, though. So let’s move to a more positive topic.<\/p>\n

\"japan<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: jcer_download_log.php<\/a><\/p>\n

Reality check on our bet: how many medals did Japan get in the end?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In our Olympics‘ post, we performed the following very simple, albeit not completely serious, calculation:<\/p>\n