{"id":2421,"title":"Argentina at a Crossroads","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/de\/globalization\/argentina-crossroads\/","date":"14. April 2015","date_unix":1429001032,"date_modified_unix":1587020856,"date_iso":"2015-04-14T08:43:52+00:00","content":"

\"3860377744_702573d2fe_o\"<\/a>Jesus Alexander Reyes S\u00e1nchez @ flickr<\/span><\/p>\n

Eight months ago, as the Argentine national football team marched towards the World Cup Final, the common refrain held that it was a country of 40 million football coaches.<\/p>\n

It may also be one of 40 million currency specialists.<\/p>\n

Over coffee in Buenos Aires, I asked Argentine economist Luis Secco to ballpark the true rate of inflation. He simply tugged on the sleeve of a passing waiter and asked,<\/p>\n

\u201cHow much of a raise are you guys asking for this year?\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIt has got to be 50 percent,\u201d the man answered, shaking his head. \u201cAnything less and we are losing money.\u201d<\/p>\n

Argentina appears on an inexorable, slow-motion drive towards an economic crash landing. Annual inflation tops 40 percent, and the spread between the official exchange rate (8.78 pesos to the US dollar) and the \u201cblue\u201d market rate (roughly 12 to the US dollar) reflects underwhelming confidence in the currency. While comparisons to Venezuela are overblown, Argentines have faced shortages on certain staple goods such as tampons.<\/p>\n

A US$2.3 billion loan\u2014part of an US$11 billion package\u2014from China offers short-term respite for foreign reserves that had dipped below US$30 billion. But this represents frighteningly little ammunition, especially as the country risks the prospect of a major payout, which even conservative estimates place at US$7.5 billion<\/a>, to un-restructured bond holdouts.<\/p>\n

\n