{"id":15199,"title":"GED Under the Radar &#8211; May Edition","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/de\/globalization\/ged-under-the-radar-may-edition\/","date":"1. Juni 2017","date_unix":1496336420,"date_modified_unix":1584529222,"date_iso":"2017-06-01T17:00:20+00:00","content":"<figure id=\"attachment_14422\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-14422\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2017\/02\/14027234915_96bafabea6_o.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-14422\" src=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2017\/02\/14027234915_96bafabea6_o.jpg\" alt=\"Tom Blackwell @ flickr.com\" width=\"5184\" height=\"3456\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-14422\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tom Blackwell @ flickr.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Every month there are some economic stories that fall through the cracks. In this segment,\u00a0 the GED Team will present to you those economic stories, which we found most interesting each month but felt received less popular media attention than they actually deserved. These stories can come from all over the world. They can be relevant and important for the global economic system as a whole or just affect a select group of few, they can be serious or they can be humorous. In any case they will be interesting. This is &#8222;GED Under the Radar&#8220;!<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>May&#8217;s Radar Stories in Short:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Could TTIP Make a Comeback?<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>The Historic Growth Streak of the U.S. Job Market<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Japan&#8217;s Trade Policy and its Lingering Potato Chip Crisis<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Is the TTIP Ready for a Comeback?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Donald Trump isn\u2019t exactly known for his consistency on policy matters and even though the general tone of his administration regarding trade is one of protectionism, one can never be exactly sure what the President\u2019s stance on a topic will be the next week. Only recently Trump abandoned one of his most central campaign promises by stating the US would in fact not abandon the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) but would instead work on improving the existing deal. But could the Trump administration even go as far as to revive talks on a trade deal long thought dead by both negotiation sides?\u00a0 The talk of course is of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Pact &#8211; or TTIP for short &#8211; and indeed a revival of the talks for the mega trade deal could be just around the corner according to US secretary of commerce Wilbur Ross.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Negotiations of the deal that would largely harmonize US \u2013 EU trade broke down after Trump\u2019s election in November 2016. Initially aiming to cut all ties with mega deals such as TPP, NAFTA and the TTIP, Trump\u2019s plan was to focus on individual bilateral agreements with key trading partners instead. The overall aim of those deals should be to reduce the US\u2019 immense trade deficit. At least as far as Europe is concerned, however, this is not an actual option as states within the European Union do not have the legislative power to negotiate individual trade deals. Still, if the US truly wants to combat its overall trade deficit it can hardly go around the EU as the US-EU deficit is the currently second largest deficit for the US, second only to that with China. In 2016 the trade deficit with the EU amounted to a total of $146.3 billion for the United States of America.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Brokering a deal with China could prove highly complicated and even more time consuming though and so a revival of the TTIP could be the best remaining option for Trump\u2019s administration. Just this week on May 31<sup>st<\/sup> Ross told a CNBC broadcaster that \u201cit makes sense to continue TTIP negotiations and to work towards a solution that increases overall trade while reducing our trade deficit\u201d. However, while the US certainly seems to show renewed interest in the deal, this by no means guarantees a future for the agreement. Taking up TTIP talks again would almost certainly only have second priority for the US right now as the renegotiation of NAFTA poses a much more prominent political goal for the administration and even when talks continue, TTIP still faces heavy criticism from the populous both in the US and especially in Europe.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>America\u2019s Historic Job Growth Streak<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In October 2010 the US unemployment rate stood at 9.4 percent, a figure that would have been even higher if the government had counted the millions of Americans who had at that point given up looking for work in the aftermath of the 2008\/09 financial meltdown. Today the rate of unemployment is as low as 4.4 percent and economists begin to question how much lower unemployment can actually still go. In between October 2010 and now lie 79 straight months of continued job growth; by far the longest such streak on record.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Monthly Net Change of Jobs in the US in Thousands<\/em><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15200\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15200\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2017\/06\/job-market.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15200\" src=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2017\/06\/job-market.jpg\" alt=\"Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2017\" width=\"1443\" height=\"722\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2017\/06\/job-market.jpg 1443w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2017\/06\/job-market-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2017\/06\/job-market-1024x512.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2017\/06\/job-market-768x384.jpg 768w, https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2017\/06\/job-market-600x300.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1443px) 100vw, 1443px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15200\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2017<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>As this graph by the American Bureau of Labor Statistics shows, job growth in the US has been remarkably steady over those last near 7 years. Even with some months\u2019 numbers dropping close to contraction, the job market has continuously bounced back as can be nicely illustrated by the previous two months. While hiring in March slowed down considerably to just 79,000 new jobs, US employers went on to add a whole 211,000 new jobs in April.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>How much longer this streak can eventually last however, is unclear and there are in fact signs that the recovery by now is already reaching into the remotest corners of the job market. The recent drop in the unemployment rate seems to have been especially concentrated among less educated workers, indicating that now that fewer Americans remain looking for a job, employers are hiring those people they might otherwise have overlooked. For now though job growth remains strong in the US and economists keep counting how many more months can be added to this already historic streak.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Japan\u2019s Lingering Potato Chip Crisis Pushes the Nation\u2019s Trade Policy into Focus<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Japan\u2019s snack markets remain in crisis mode, as a continuing potato shortage forces producers to take more and more popular brands off shelf while spiking the prices of those brands left for sale. Calbee\u2019s chips \u2013 one of Japan\u2019s biggest snack brands \u2013 that used to sell for just under 200 Yen (1.80 USD) pre crisis, are now going for 1250 Yen and more. That\u2019s 12 dollars for a bag of chips. But while the crisis was primarily caused through forces outside the control of Japanese markets, it also says something about Japan\u2019s current trade policies.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>How did Japan get to this point? Let us first take a closer look at the history of this crisis. About 80 percent of Japan\u2019s potatoes are grown on Japan\u2019s northern island of Hokkaido. The region experienced some unusually bad luck last year as an unprecedented number of four typhoons hit the island during August. The results were severe agricultural damages and a historically low potato harvest causing a drop in 10 percent of annual production to about 1.72 million tons in 2016. The diminished potato reserves finally began to show in early April this year, as snack producers across the board were forced to limit chip production and increase their prices. News of the shortage and pictures of near empty shelves on Twitter encouraged panic buying and over the past two months this trend of rising prices and decreasing stock has only worsened. While many were still hoping that the crisis could be overcome by the end of May with the arrival of spring harvest potatoes, it now looks like an end to the shortage is not in immediate sight. As Hokkaido\u2019s farmers have still not fully recovered, Japan\u2019s farm ministry expects the chip shortage to last until the fall when the Island\u2019s next harvests get underway in September.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not the first time in recent years Japan was victim to such an agricultural crisis. In 2014 and 2015, a shortage of butter, also originating in Hokkaido, sparked outrage and frustration among consumers. Both then and now, Japan\u2019s trade policies have come under the spotlight in national debate. While Tokyo has frequently voiced their concerns about protectionist tendencies propagated by US President Trump, at least in the sector of agriculture Japan itself isn\u2019t exactly a role model of open trade. Japan heavily protects its local farmers and a very high concern for health regulations further complicate the exchange of foreign agricultural products in Japan. To prevent the spread of parasites and diseases, Japan currently only allows potato imports from the United States \u2013 after decades of pushing from the US \u2013 and even the US imports are subject to heavy regulation making especially the import of fresh potatoes highly difficult and bothersome for Japanese snack makers. While, admittedly, a national shortage of potato chips is unlikely to revert Tokyo\u2019s stance on their import regulations, it seems that this crisis for now is not going anywhere and even when it does, who knows when the next crisis will strike and what precious good might be in short supply then?<\/p>\n","excerpt":"<p>Sometimes, stories of interest fall through the cracks of the mainstream attention. In GED Under the Radar, we bring you those stories you might have missed in May. This month under the radar: TTIP, the American job market and a potato chip crisis!<\/p>\n","thumbnail":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2017\/02\/14027234915_96bafabea6_o-scaled.jpg","thumbnailsquare":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2017\/02\/14027234915_96bafabea6_o-scaled.jpg","authors":[{"id":4750,"name":"Fritz Putzhammer","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/de\/blogger\/fritz-putzhammer\/"}],"categories":[{"id":152,"name":"Globalization","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/category\/globalization\/"}],"tags":[]}