{"id":13219,"title":"How To Get the EU\u2013Turkey Relationship Back on Track","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/de\/globalization\/bundestag-member-niels-annen-speaks-on-turkish-eu-relations\/","date":"17. November 2016","date_unix":1479403763,"date_modified_unix":1479403763,"date_iso":"2016-11-17T17:29:23+00:00","content":"<div class=\"postContentEmbed\">\n<div class=\"embedContainer embedContainer--video\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Turkey &amp; EU \u2013 What now? A conversation with Bundestag Member Niels Annen\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube-nocookie.com\/embed\/J2IdwgswmfM?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>If there is one consistent criticism of economists, it is that we base explanations and predictions on a logical, orderly universe that in reality does not exist. It\u2019s the oldest economist joke in the world \u2013 \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Assume_a_can_opener\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" >assume a can-opener<\/a>\u201d. Most of the time, the assumptions economists take for granted do not play out on the ground. In short, there is no can-opener.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>For a case in point, consider European Union economic relations with Turkey. The two are natural partners, and our study <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de\/fileadmin\/files\/BSt\/Publikationen\/GrauePublikationen\/NW_Turkey_s_EU_integration.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" ><em>Turkey\u2019s EU Integration at a Crossroads<\/em><\/a> underscores the exponential growth in Turkish \u2013 EU commerce.\u00a0 Moreover, as my colleague Fritz Putzhammer <a href=\"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/topics\/international-trade\/european-trade\/regional-trade-agreements\/turkey-and-the-eu-have-to-expand-their-trade-or-expect-losses\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"\u00d6ffnet in einem neuen Tab\" >points out<\/a>, our data suggests that a failure to peruse deeper integration would cause loses on both sides. So we should assume that Turkey and the EU are tightening relations then, right?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Well, this would be assuming a can-opener.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In fact, the Turkish \u2013 EU connection is marred by geo-political complications with significant economic spillover effects. One obvious example is the refugee crises \u2013 Turkey is positioned as a gate keeper to hundreds of thousands of refugees seeking asylum in Europe.\u00a0 Ankara has attempted to leverage this position in integration negotiations.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, Europe is increasingly wary of President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan who appears to be consolidating power at the expense of niceties such as freedom of expression. Meanwhile, Ankara remains shocked that the EU did not more forcibly support President Erdogan during the tenuous hours of a coup attempt on the night of July 15, 2016.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>So there is no can-opener \u2013 only a can of worms that both sides must work through to make the most of an economic relationship that makes a lot of sense on paper.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>With this in mind, as part of my <em>Crossroads Turkey<\/em> research, I interviewed German Bundestag Member and a foreign affairs specialist Niels Annen (SPD) in a discussion on how to get the EU \u2013 Turkey relationship back on track.<\/p>\n","excerpt":"<p>As part of my Crossroads Turkey research, I interviewed German Bundestag Member and a foreign affairs specialist Niels Annen (SPD) in a discussion on how to get the EU \u2013 Turkey relationship back on track.<\/p>\n","thumbnail":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/11\/9428516535_b6c099a5b0_o-scaled.jpg","thumbnailsquare":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/24\/2016\/11\/9428516535_b6c099a5b0_o-scaled.jpg","authors":[{"id":309,"name":"Samuel George","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/de\/blogger\/samuel-george\/"}],"categories":[{"id":152,"name":"Globalization","link":"https:\/\/bst-europe.eu\/category\/globalization\/"}],"tags":[]}